LA Kings vs Edmonton Oilers: Numbers After 2 Games

LA has maintained a slight edge in shot share while Edmonton has had the better of the quality chances. The lack of high-danger chances that the Kings get offensively shouldn’t be much of a surprise against an Edmonton team that defends those quite well.

Possession-wise LA has started each of these games poorly. Edmonton held large advantages in expected goals in the opening 20 minutes of Game 1 (86.7%) and Game 2 (60.8%) but LA was able to settle in somewhat afterward. The Kings probably aren’t going to get the better of Edmonton when it comes to puck possession, zone time, and scoring chances, which is why they need to be efficient off the rush. We saw this in Game 2 with three goals coming off the rush while Adrian Kempe‘s first goal came off a turnover. This is how LA can win this series.

From an individual standpoint, here’s how the LA Kings players’ have fared.

Kempe and Anze Kopitar lead the team in Corsi-For percentage (CF%) after two games. Blake Lizotte, Quinton Byfield, and Jordan Spence round out the top five.

It has not been a good series statistically for Pierre-Luc Dubois. His 39.7% CF% is dead last on the team. Andreas Englund and Kevin Fiala are not far behind. Matt Roy has had the fourth-worst CF% through two games as he and Vladislav Gavrikov have not had a great start to the series.

In terms of Expected Goals share (xGF%), the fourth line shows up nicely here. In his limited ice time, Carl Grundstom leads the team (68.5%), although the sample and the events are quite small. Noteworthy toward the top of this list is Jordan Spence again. He’s putting together a nice series and he used his excellent vision and skill on Anze Kopitar’s game-winning goal in Game 2. Spence brings abilities no other LA defenseman can.

Some usual suspects toward the bottom in Englund and Dubois. Meanwhile, Gavrikov appears in the bottom five while Viktor Arvidsson‘s 25% xGF% is a team worst.

When paired together Gavrikov and Roy have an xGF% of just 33.9%. For a duo that is supposed to be a great shutdown tandem, they haven’t shown it yet in this series. LA will need these two to be better to get past the Oilers.

Mikey Anderson and Drew Doughty on the other hand have been quite good. They’ve posted a 57.3% CF% and 58.6% xGF% over 35 minutes of ice time together through two games.

Do you want to know just how good Jordan Spence has been? He and Andreas Englund have a 54.2% CF% and 50% xGF%. When not with Spence, Englund has been abysmal: 14.3% CF%, 4.5% xGF%.

Unsurprisingly, LA has found no answer for Connor McDavid. He has a 56.5% CF% and 75.8% xGF% at 5-on-5. He’s feasted on the Gavrikov-Roy pairing (85.5% xGF% against Gavrikov, 83.2% xGF% against Roy). He’s posted similar xGF numbers against the Phillip Danault line and you wonder if either of those matchups will change in Los Angeles.

Between the pipes, Talbot has been OK. He made some big saves in Game 2 at crucial times, but he’s going to have to play better than an .873 save percentage for LA to win. At 5-on-5, he has an .894 SV% and is 10th in the playoffs with a -0.93 GSAx per Evolving Hockey.

Unless, of course, Stuart Skinner continues the way he’s going. He has a league-worst .822 SV% and -4.68 GSAx at 5-on-5 per Evolving Hockey.

When looking at just shot share and shot quality, Game 2 in Edmonton was one of the best LA has played after what is now 15 playoff games over the past three seasons. Game 2 didn’t do too much in terms of increasing my confidence that LA can win this series, but it did show me that there’s plenty of fight in this team and they aren’t going to make it as easy as Game 1 was for Edmonton.

The series now shifts to LA and we’ll see what adjustments either coach may have in store.

Main Photo Credit: Codie McLachlan/Getty Images